Pakistan Prepares for Foreign Policy Challenges in 2025 with Trump in the Picture

Pakistan Prepares for Foreign Policy Challenges in 2025 with Trump in the Picture

Islamabad, Pakistan

Pakistan welcomed the new year with a sense of relative tranquility after a challenging 30 months characterized by unstable politics, a contentious election, and an economy on the brink of crisis. As the political landscape begins to stabilize and there are hopes for economic recovery in South Asia’s second-largest nation, foreign policy and security issues are expected to become the primary concerns this year.

Experts foresee a problematic 2025 for Pakistan as it navigates global relationships with neighboring countries, allies, and adversaries, particularly with the United States, where Donald Trump is anticipated to regain power soon.

Many of Pakistan’s foreign policy and security dilemmas stem from its immediate surroundings, especially Afghanistan to the West and its long-standing rival India to the east. Following the Taliban’s takeover of Kabul in 2021, violence from armed groups surged across Pakistan. In 2024, nearly 700 law enforcement personnel lost their lives due to armed attacks, marking one of the deadliest years for the nation of 240 million. The majority of these assaults were attributed to the Pakistan Taliban (Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, TTP), which views the Afghan Taliban as its ideological counterpart. Additionally, separate attacks targeted locations associated with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a $62 billion megaproject that has strengthened the political and economic alliance between Islamabad and Beijing.

Christopher Clary, a non-resident fellow at the Stimson Center and an associate professor of political science at the University at Albany, emphasizes that Pakistan is facing its “most severe” national security challenge in at least a decade, possibly since the 1990s. He notes, “Pakistan has no grand strategic choice other than to get its economic house in order and repair its relationships with other great powers and regional neighbors. This likely entails years of work, and it is not clear that Pakistan has years to do that work before the house tumbles in,

Here’s a summary of the countries that will be central to Islamabad’s foreign policy this year:

Pakistani officials often emphasize their friendship with China, describing it as “deeper than the oceans, taller than the mountains.” However, 2024 has exposed some issues in this relationship.

Recent attacks on Chinese nationals and interests have led to a rare public criticism from Beijing’s ambassador to Islamabad. “It is unacceptable for us to be attacked twice in only six months,” Jiang Zaidong stated during an event in Islamabad in October.

Foreign policy expert Muhammad Faisal cautions that while China is likely to continue its financial support for Pakistan, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) expansion in the country may not happen.

“Pakistan needs to carefully manage the increasing pressure from Beijing for a ‘Joint Security Mechanism,’ which would involve placing Chinese security personnel on Pakistani soil, potentially making them targets for militants and complicating current security efforts.”

Chinese soldiers involved in projects within Pakistan could signal a recognition of Islamabad’s security shortcomings, heightening the risk of attacks on Chinese personnel and raising the politically charged issue of Chinese forces potentially harming Pakistani citizens. Additionally, experts worry that Trump’s confrontational approach towards China might compel Beijing to seek public backing from Pakistan, putting Islamabad in a delicate position to maintain a balance and not upset Washington, its long-standing ally.

During his first term, Trump adopted a tough stance on China, leading to a trade conflict between the two nations. In his second term, he promised to impose as high as 60 percent tariffs on Chinese goods. However, since Pakistan isn’t a priority for the Trump administration, there is a potential upside. Still, according to Faisal, uncertainty remains a key factor in Pakistan’s dealings with China.

Kamran Bokhari, a senior director at the US-based New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, noted that China’s dissatisfaction with Pakistan arises from the limited returns on its significant investments in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). He suggested that China’s dilemma could be advantageous for the US. “China has been quite frustrated with Pakistan, and their relationship has been strained for a while. However, Beijing finds itself difficult due to its substantial investments in Pakistan without seeing the expected benefits. This predicament for China could benefit the US,” he explained.

The United States

Pakistan’s relationship with the United States dates back to its independence from British rule in 1947. Over the years, the ties between Islamabad and Washington have primarily depended on Pakistan’s support for US policies in the region, particularly during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the 1970s and 1980s, as well as during the US-led “war on terror” that followed the 9/11 attacks in 2001.

With the Taliban regaining control in Kabul, the strategic partnership between Pakistan and the US has diminished. The US has shown reduced interest in Afghanistan, while Pakistan has increasingly turned to China for its economic, military, and technological needs.

Hassan Abbas, a professor at the National Defense University in Washington, DC, emphasizes that Pakistan needs to “carefully navigate” its relationship with the US, especially given the tensions with China and India. He notes that while there is a sense of unease in Pakistan, significant changes in the relationship seem unlikely.

“Security concerns and regional issues, like the instability in Afghanistan,” Abbas shared with Al Jazeera, “are likely to shape the interactions between the two countries.” As the author of “The Return of Taliban: Afghanistan after Americans Left,” he points out that Pakistan is currently a low priority for the US, focusing on more pressing global matters, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and various issues in the Middle East.

“At this moment, I don’t foresee any major tensions escalating between the two nations, and Pakistan is managing its position cautiously. In Washington, the prevailing view of Pakistan is that it is a struggling state that needs to address its challenges before engaging further,” he added.

India

Pakistan faces a significant challenge in its foreign policy regarding India. Although there are occasional interactions at multilateral meetings, the relationship has been largely stagnant for years. The situation escalated in 2019 when India revoked the limited autonomy of Indian-administered Kashmir, leading to intense backlash from Pakistan. Both nations control parts of Kashmir but claim the entire region, resulting in one of the most protracted and violent military conflicts in history.

Analyst Clary noted that the disparity between India and Pakistan is becoming increasingly pronounced, leaving Pakistan with few viable options to make India take its concerns seriously without jeopardizing other foreign policy objectives. He pointed out that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has little interest in improving relations with Pakistan, viewing it as impractical amid domestic challenges in Pakistan.

Abdul Basit, a former Pakistani ambassador to India, believes the Kashmir situation remains a stalemate that requires discreet diplomatic efforts. He remarked that India has shown no inclination to be flexible since the constitutional changes, explicitly referencing the Modi administration’s repeal of Article 370, which had provided some autonomy to Indian-administered Kashmir. With India strengthening its ties with the West, particularly the US, due to shared concerns about China, Basit argues that Islamabad needs to explore avenues for engagement with New Delhi.

He emphasized that without such efforts, the two countries would remain in a deadlock cycle, preventing any progress toward establishing normal relations. For him, this is an essential issue regarding India.

Bokhari from the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy believes that this year, India might find itself in the US’s sights, especially regarding its competition with China. He points out that India has developed strong and practical relationships with Iran, which is currently working on a port project. Additionally, India is purchasing oil from Russia, which is involved in the Ukraine conflict. This situation could increase the likelihood of India facing pressure from the upcoming Trump administration.

Bokhari also notes that for Pakistan to regain US interest, it needs to demonstrate strategic importance similar to what it did during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the post-9/11 conflicts. He emphasizes that to capture US attention, Pakistan must present something that piques American interest significantly. “The US’s relationship with Pakistan wasn’t based on friendship; it was about the purpose Pakistan served,” he explained.

Iran

The year 2024 proved to be a tumultuous period for Iran, marked by significant setbacks in its geopolitical standing within the Middle East, including direct military strikes from Israel on multiple occasions. The year commenced with Iran conducting operations in Pakistan’s Balochistan province, targeting an armed group known as Jaish al-Adl, which it identified as a security threat along its borders. This incursion led to a prompt military response from Pakistan. However, the situation did not escalate into a more significant conflict, as Tehran opted for diplomatic channels to address the tensions.Umer Karim, a researcher at the University of Birmingham, anticipates that this “uneasy rapprochement” will persist alongside the emergence of new challenges, particularly with Trump’s potential return to the White House.

Karim cautions that a decline in relations between Pakistan and Iran could exacerbate border security issues, potentially empowering Baloch separatists who are believed to have safe havens in Iran. These Baloch rebels have long sought an independent state. “Pakistan will seek to engage positively with Iran to mitigate further tensions amid increasing domestic unrest,” Karim stated.