Biden to Leave Unfinished Middle East Agenda for Trump Amid Growing Chaos
Biden to Leave Unfinished Middle East Agenda for Trump Amid Growing Chaos
WASHINGTON—Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser to U.S. President Joe Biden, described the Middle East in late September 2023 as “quieter” than it had been for the past 20 years.
That evaluation quickly proved to be inaccurate. Just a week later, Hamas executed a shocking attack from Gaza into Israel, igniting a conflict that devastated the Palestinian territory and created upheaval throughout the region—resulting in a series of crises that has overshadowed Biden’s legacy in foreign affairs as he approaches the end of his term on January 20.
Although aides to Biden played a significant role in facilitating a Gaza ceasefire agreement for the release of hostages announced on Wednesday, analysts suggest that Biden’s tenure in the Middle East will likely be remembered more for the escalations of conflict during his administration than for the efforts to resolve them. This situation leaves many unresolved issues for the next president, Donald Trump, and his future administration.
Biden’s international record is expected to be prominently influenced by his management of the 15-month conflict in Gaza, which Trump and other Republicans have highlighted as part of a “world on fire” narrative during the Democratic president’s administration. They attribute a lack of determination on Biden’s part as a factor that has emboldened adversaries to instigate disorder across the region.
Biden’s supporters argue that he has had to tackle a series of Middle East issues that were not his creation and has managed them adeptly, diminishing Iran and its regional allies while striving to minimize civilian harm in Gaza and Lebanon. However, Biden’s unwavering backing of Israel, which resulted in a harsh response that nearly obliterated Hamas but also resulted in the deaths of tens of thousands of civilians in Gaza, significantly impacted U.S. global standing. It also created divisions within his Democratic Party, contributing to Vice President Kamala Harris’ loss to Trump in the November election. “The positive aspect is that Biden stood by Israel as a trustworthy ally,” noted Aaron David Miller, a former adviser for the Middle East under both Democratic and Republican administrations.
“The negative aspect is that he was largely ineffective in tempering (Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu’s actions in Gaza, which has caused serious reputational harm to the U.S.” The ceasefire initiative for Gaza that was finalized in the closing days of Biden’s presidency, after extensive negotiations that came and went, was founded on proposals he put forth in mid-2024 and demanded relentless determination along with Qatari and Egyptian mediators to reach its conclusion.
Nevertheless, the last-minute diplomatic success in Doha was perceived mainly by regional stakeholders as being more influenced by Trump’s warnings that there would be “serious consequences” if the hostages were not released by his inauguration on Monday, a threat that a Middle East source close to the Gaza discussions described as a “sword” looming over the negotiators. Trump sent his incoming Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, to work with Biden’s chief negotiator, Brett McGurk, and an Israeli official indicated that Witkoff’s involvement injected new energy into the discussions.
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“Witkoff successfully pressured Netanyahu into agreeing to the deal and acting swiftly,” an official familiar with the discussions stated, mentioning a meeting with the conservative leader who developed a strong rapport with Trump during his initial term. Netanyahu’s cabinet is set to vote on the agreement on Thursday, with a government official indicating that most ministers will likely support it. Although Secretary of State Antony Blinken presented a plan for post-war Gaza on Tuesday, it will be the responsibility of the Trump administration to ensure the ceasefire plan is fully implemented and to determine its level of involvement in the “Day After.”
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In his last year as president, Biden has been acknowledged for building an international coalition that has provided protection for Israel against Iranian missile threats and for approving Israeli counterattacks on Tehran’s air defences—despite his cautions against targeting Iranian nuclear and oil facilities. Even with U.S. requests for moderation in Lebanon, Israel delivered several significant strikes against Hezbollah militants last year, often without much or any prior notification to Washington. This was perceived as the primary reason the Iran-aligned militant group reached a ceasefire agreement backed by the U.S. in November.
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The Biden administration was unexpectedly confronted with a rapid rebel offensive that led to the overthrow of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, a significant ally of Iran, in early December. Since then, they have been trying to convince the new Islamist leaders to establish an inclusive government and avoid a resurgence of the Islamic State, challenges that Trump will now face.
“The greatest achievement is that Biden didn’t obstruct Israel, but he repeatedly advised against certain actions,” commented Elliott Abrams, who served as Trump’s special envoy on Iran during his first term and currently assesses Biden’s Middle East performance as “mediocre.” “I don’t believe he deserves much praise regarding Lebanon or Syria,“ he added. In his farewell speech on foreign policy at the State Department on Monday, Biden defended his strategy, claiming that the U.S. has played a significant role in making Iran “weaker than it has been in decades.“ Some analysts have also praised him for helping to prevent a full-scale regional conflict.
Nonetheless, Biden leaves Trump with what most experts consider his greatest Middle East challenge. This burgeoning Iranian nuclear program has progressed over the last four years and could quickly move towards developing a nuclear weapon if desired. Critics argue that it was Trump’s choice to withdraw from the international nuclear agreement with Iran in 2018 that paved the way for its nuclear advancements, while Blinken identified it as one of Biden’s achievements that Tehran has been dissuaded from acquiring a nuclear bomb.
Upon returning to office, Trump will need to decide whether to seek a new nuclear agreement with Iran or permit Netanyahu to strike Iranian nuclear sites. “The choice regarding how to engage with Iran will ultimately influence much of Trump’s decision-making concerning the entire region,“ stated Jonathan Panikoff, a former U.S. deputy national intelligence officer focused on the Middle East.
Trump will need to address another Iran-affiliated group, the Houthis from Yemen, who have been launching missiles at shipping in the Red Sea and towards Israel for over a year. Biden’s military actions, coordinated with U.S. allies, have not neutralized the Houthi threat.
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While recognizing that the Middle East continues to be “full of risks,“ Blinken, speaking in his final policy address, highlighted achievements he claimed included facilitating a U.N.-brokered ceasefire in Yemen’s civil war, bolstering the international coalition against the Islamic State and promoting regional integration.
SAUDI-ISRAEL NORMALIZATION EFFORT DISRUPTED
Sullivan faced considerable criticism following the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, for his comments made just over a week earlier, stating that the Middle East “is quieter today than it has been in two decades“ – even though he admitted there were ongoing challenges.
Later, Sullivan defended his statements during an interview with NBC News, explaining that they were contextualized within recent regional developments and asserting that the administration had remained vigilant, even as the long-standing Israeli-Palestinian conflict hindered Biden’s global plans.
Soon after Hamas operatives attacked, killing 1,200 people in Israel and taking over 250 hostages, Biden, who identifies as a “Zionist,“ made history as the first U.S. president to visit Israel during wartime.
He subsequently maintained a continuous supply of weapons to Israel for its declared intent to eliminate the Iran-supported Hamas, despite consistent resistance from Netanyahu regarding U.S. requests to limit civilian casualties and alleviate the humanitarian situation in Gaza.
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Biden’s reluctance to leverage U.S. influence as Israel’s primary provider of arms has distanced many Arab American voters and created significant unrest within the U.S. diplomatic community.
“Gaza will be his legacy,“ stated Mike Casey, a former State Department official with 15 years of experience as a foreign service officer, who was among those who resigned in disapproval. “They will uncover bodies in the debris. People will continue to succumb to illness… This will always get back to him.“
The White House did not reply to a request for comments regarding criticisms of its Gaza strategy.
Simultaneously, the war in Gaza disrupted Biden’s attempts to facilitate historic normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia, along with associated U.S. security guarantees for the kingdom.
Some Arab nations are currently pausing to determine if Trump, during his first term, will reignite diplomatic relationships between Israel and various Arab states following the Abraham Accords and will adopt a more assertive approach towards Iran.
There is a sentiment within Trump’s camp that an Israeli-Saudi agreement remains within reach, according to a source knowledgeable about the situation.
Even though Arab allies have had somewhat strained interactions with Biden, they still hold reservations about Trump, mainly due to his previous reluctance to pressure Netanyahu into agreeing to a route toward Palestinian statehood—a key requirement for Saudi Arabia’s normalization with Israel. “Biden hasn’t exactly been viewed as the most favourable leader in the Arab world,“ noted a Middle Eastern diplomat in Washington. “However, we remain uncertain about what to anticipate from Trump’s second term.”
Source: reuters
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